‘All Politics is Local’ is an opinion column written by John Lyons, a member of West Hartford’s Democratic Town Committee.

By John Lyons

Each month I examine national issues and offer my thoughts on how West Hartford (and we as residents) are impacted. You’ll be surprised at how much seemingly small, or out-of-sight issues have a big impact on all of us.

An election postmortem and a look ahead; It’s all about the judges.

Trump won the election in a mandate. As of this writing, he had won the electoral college vote and won (by a wide margin) the popular vote. Not only did he win but he brought big coattails down ballot earning Republican majorities in the Senate (bigger than expected) and what looks like a slim Republican majority in the House (which was unexpected). The “red wave” arrived two years later than forecast, but it arrived.

Trump increased his margins in nearly every demographic and in both traditionally red and blue areas in nearly every state. The exit polling told an ominous story for Democrats and when the results started coming around 8 p.m., they confirmed it. Compared to 2020, the Democrats saw vote totals decrease substantially across the country and even here in West Hartford, while the Republicans saw only a slight decrease overall and poached many from demographics traditionally aligned with the Democrats.

What caused this? The ongoing war in the Middle East and the Biden administration’s response to it is a likely culprit. I discuss other contributing factors to the win and loss respectively below.

What went right for Trump? He was an alternative to the narrative that the Biden/Harris policies were a failure. He used an effective fear-based message pertaining to the border and crime, and convinced voters he was better for the economy, inflation, Israel, and the world than the alternative.

What went wrong for Harris? Biden’s legacy – which he was endlessly blamed for inflation and economic problems that most people complained about, but seemingly few experienced themselves – and she failed to distance herself from that record. He ignored the border for nearly two years at the start of his term and then when he did take it seriously and even got buy-in on a bipartisan border bill, Trump had regained enough influence over the House to successfully quash it knowing he could use it as a cudgel in campaigning against Harris and incredibly, Harris almost never brought it up on the trail. As mentioned, Biden’s handling and messaging regarding the war in Gaza no doubt further suppressed his support in key districts and voter turnout. Finally, his late exit from the campaign hurt as Republicans argued in their messaging that a fair candidate selection process did not occur.

What happens now?

With Trump elected, the courts are my greatest area of concern over the coming four years. While his first term was marked by either Washington insiders in his administration clashing with him or outsiders trying to financially benefit by having a seat at the table, the result was a lot of inaction during his administration. Now, GOP strategists have sharpened their game and will ensure that those in Trump’s circle will be well versed on how to advance that overall conservative agenda, likely thinking that Trump will rubber stamp legislation that crosses his desk.

All that talk and worry of Project 2025 was not hyperbole. They will focus on the advancement of the GOP conservative agenda including Project 2025 and those there for personal gain are less likely to have a seat at the table.

The immediate path forward will be interesting. Prior to inauguration, will Biden get a Supreme Court vacancy through a possible retirement of 70-year-old Sonya Sotomayor and if so, can he get someone confirmed by the Senate if a vacancy does happen immediately? If not, does Sotomayor stay on hoping to outlast Republican control of the Senate?  We all saw how that went with Ruth Bader Ginsberg. Trump could possibly get two additional vacancies according to experts, as Alito and Thomas could retire in the coming years.

All are keenly aware that confirmation is not assured if the Senate is controlled by the opposing party. We learned that in 2015 with Merrick Garland, so retirements I think will be more common when the party that nominated and confirmed the nominee is in power. This will bear very close watching in the coming weeks, months, and years and I predict will have the longest lasting impact on all Americans.

But judgeships don’t just exist at the Supreme Court level and the Senate will take up confirming conservative judges for federal courts all over the country the moment Trump is inaugurated. They will be confirmed by the hundreds, if not thousands. Judges have a role in many things that impact our democracy, including hearing arguments about countless subjects including the drawing of voting districts (look up the word “gerrymandering”), whether to allow a prosecution to move forward (Aileen M. Cannon who was a Trump appointee dismissing a criminal case against Trump), and of course in Bush v. Gore where the right-leaning Supreme Court decided the 2000 election by stopping a hand recount in Florida that historians say would have likely flipped the state and result. This crop of judges will have a role in defining American politics potentially for generations.

There are two things at play, one is for all intents and purposes, permanent and the other is only temporary. One-third of the Senate will be up for reelection in two years. The entire House will be up as well, as members serve two-year terms. The GOP controlling both chambers can be temporary. The Democrats have to come up with good candidates that understand the issues and can articulate a relatable message to voters. Not an easy job as we all just witnessed but if successful, control of the Senate and/or House will act as an effective check on the president.

The judges are much more concerning. Many judgeships are lifetime appointments. I am 60 years old, and any future Supreme Court pick will likely outlive me while serving on the high court the entire time. If in fact three new justices are picked during this term, I don’t know if I will see more than one more SCOTUS pick in my expected lifetime. Lifetime appointments are scary – especially when two of the current justices have demonstrated a lack of integrity or sound judgement in recent years.

Judges affect all of us. If a nationwide abortion ban becomes law (and the incoming Congress is very likely to try to pass such a law), the courts could represent the final line of defense. Any local law will not be enforceable as federal law will supersede state laws.

Undocumented immigrants are a vital part of the workforce with many holding farming and menial jobs that many Americans don’t want. The courts might be the final hope for millions if deportation efforts take hold.  We will have a huge shortage of workers should this happen as campaigned on.

For me, I will be watching (and worrying about) the judges for the next four years. Everyone will be impacted.

The views expressed represent the opinion of John Lyons, and are not intended to represent the opinion of We-Ha.com or the West Hartford Democratic Town Committee.

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