Enrollment in West Hartford Public Schools is projected to stay within a range of 200 students for the next 10 years.

By Manon L.  Mirabelli

In a recent presentation to the Board of Education, school administrators projected student enrollment will remain within 200 students over the next 10 years despite the addition of new housing units slated for construction.

Elizabeth Hewitt, director of planning and finance, said the majority of increased enrollment will occur at the elementary level, taper off in middle school, and remain level for high school students who have more choices between public, private, parochial, vocational high schools.

“We’re not expecting a significant impact,” Hewitt told Board members. She provided conservative and moderate projections, noting that “in reality, it will be somewhere in between.”

A Predictive Enrollment Analytics module within PowerSchool, the district’s existing student information system, has been used since 2023 to provide enrollment estimates, rather than the previous method of analyzing birth rates.

The three major factors used to determine the reported numbers included recent kindergarten enrollment trends – which has been impacted by the pandemic as well as a change in age eligibility that took effect in 2024, a comparison between the incoming kindergarten cohort vs. the graduating class and in other cohorts as students age through the system, and changes in the number of residential units within the district.

“A key component of the enrollment analysis is new and ongoing residential housing development in West Hartford,” Hewitt noted. “New residential projects were identified by location, type of dwelling, and expected completion date.”

As Mayor Shari Cantor reported in her State of the Town address, there are many new approved dwelling units projected to be occupied over the next 10 years. Specifically, Hewitt said, 11 ongoing development projects will result in 89 new single family/attached units, and 1,137 multifamily units.

According to standard statistical calculations, in each of the next three years, the new developments are projected to add 61, 84, and 69 students, who will be spread between 13 grades and all schools.

“This data was the basis for calculating the expected number of school-age children residing in new housing,” Hewitt said.

Also impacting the enrollment projection is new legislation that changed the age at which students are eligible to begin kindergarten. Historically, students could enter kindergarten in Connecticut if they were 5 years old by Jan. 1. As of the 2024-2025 school year, that date has been pushed back to Sept. 1.

“There were 62 fewer kindergarten students than had been anticipated absent a change in starting age,” Hewitt said. “We anticipate a return to a standard size for the 2025-2026 school year.”

In summary, Hewitt said the modest increase in enrollment for the next 10 years will not present a problem in terms of schools’ capacity.

“We expect a very gradual rise, a very gradual decrease, and I feel confident,” Hewitt said.

“There are no capacity issues for standard classrooms at any of the schools.”

She added, however, that the increased need for specialized services for students requiring small-group learning or more individualized instruction may play a role in space needs.

“We will continue to assess space needs at individual schools,” she said.

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